Would any of the top high schools in the country be welcome in San Francisco?
Excellent schools can use lotteries for admission, provided they demand high standards from their students.
In recent months, one of the running jokes has been people announcing they were “doing their own research” into Covid-19 vaccines only to end up spouting unreliable data promoted by quacks.
The San Francisco Board of Education was busy doing its own research too. The Superior Court of California rescinded the Board’s resolution changing the Lowell admissions process because the debate was so abbreviated it violated the Brown Act. Nevertheless, several board members justified their votes by referencing a document that was never peer-reviewed or published anywhere but which they’d somehow managed to get their hands on.
The document was produced by some alumni of Thomas Jefferson High School (the “TJ Alumni”) in Alexandria, VA, who wanted to change that school’s selective admission policy. The TJ Alumni looked at the U.S. News and World Report list of the top 50 high schools in the country, identified 18 that used lotteries as part of their admissions process, and threw some statistical jargon around to claim that these 18 were more representative of their communities than the 32 which used selective admissions processes.
This was exactly what the board members wanted to believe. If so many of the top high schools in the country used lotteries for admission, it would prove that changing the admissions policy need not compromise the excellence of the school. The TJ Alumni report was the one external document that some board members cited in their explanations for their votes. For example, Matt Alexander wrote that “this analysis shows that lotteries produce student bodies that are more representative of the overall local student population” and Gabriela Lopez wrote that the “statistical analysis that shows lottery admissions produce better representation outcomes.”
As so often happens when people “do their own research”, the board members ended up with an unreliable source (see the appendix below for details). More importantly, they evinced no curiosity about what it takes to be one of the top 50 high schools in the country if you do use lotteries as part of your admissions process. If you’re going to argue that lotteries don’t preclude a school from being excellent, you’re implying that the excellent lottery schools are models to follow. Let’s look at those schools and see if any would be compatible with their vision for education in San Francisco.
Here are the 18 schools:
(Chandler, AZ): Grades 5-12, Charter.
(Flagstaff, AZ): Grades K-12, Charter
(Oro Valley, AZ): Grades 6-12, Charter
(Peoria, AZ): Grades 5-12, Charter
(Scottsdale, AZ): Grades 4-12, Charter
(Tucson, AZ): Grades 5-12, Charter.
(Bentonville, AR): Grades 7-12, Charter
(Fayetteville, AR); Grades 7-12, Charter
Signature (Evansville, IN): IB Program; Charter School
Int. Academy of Macomb (Macomb, MI). IB Program; Magnet School
International Academy (Bloomfield Hills, MI). IB Program; Magnet School
City High/Middle (Grand Rapids, MI). Grades 7-12; IB Program
Merrol Hyde (Hendersonville, TN): Grades K-12; Magnet School
School for Advanced Studies (Miami, FL): Grades 11/12 Only
Gwinnett School of Mathematics, Science and Technology (Lawrenceville, GA): STEM
Tesla STEM (Redmond, WA) STEM Magnet School
DeBakey HS for Health Professions (Houston, TX) Magnet
D’Evelyn Junior/Senior HS (Lakeshore, CO). Grades 7-12
It should be obvious why the board would hate most of these schools:
Nine of the eighteen are charter schools. SFUSD is usually hostile ground for charter schools. Presumably Alexander and Lopez would not have been as quick to cite the TJ Alumni document if they had realized this.
Four of the eighteen offer the International Baccalaureate (IB) Diploma. No public high school in San Francisco offers this program and any attempt to introduce it would be criticized as elitist.
Three of the eighteen offer accelerated programs that focus on a particular area. SFUSD offers no such programs and would oppose their introduction because of the belief that acceleration is bad.
Four start in 7th grade, seven start even earlier (all the BASIS schools effectively start in kindergarten because they have associated elementary schools). All SFUSD high schools start from 9th grade.
The only non-charter, non-magnet, non-focused school that covers all high school grades is D’Evelyn. Nevertheless, D’Evelyn too would be completely anathema to the SFUSD Board of Education. Its educational philosophy is enshrined in a “founding document” that all prospective parents have to read. It is “based on the belief that all students, not just an elite group, should be held to rigorous academic and behavioral standards...the purpose of education is to convey an essential body of cultural knowledge to the next generation”. They follow a liberal arts curriculum with a focus on classic works of literature (Shakespeare, Dickens, Hugo etc.). Math is streamed starting in 7th grade. The first two operating principles for the school are “good discipline and order will be maintained to ensure an atmosphere conducive to effective teaching and learning” and “courtesy and respect for high moral and ethical standards will be required, and patriotism will be emphasized”. It’s fun to imagine the reception this would receive at the San Francisco Board of Education. Which part would they find most offensive?
Let’s dig a little deeper
Admissions
The nine charter schools all have no restrictions on who can enter their lotteries. Of the non-charter schools, only Tesla STEM and D’Evelyn have no restrictions. The other seven impose restrictions of varying severity:
Merrol Hyde requires standardized test scores above the 85th percentile.
School for Advanced Studies requires a 3.0 GPA and standardized test scores that meet the threshold for college work.
Gwinnett School of Math, Science, and Technology requires an ‘A’ in Algebra 1 or a passing score in Accelerated Algebra or higher. In fact, GSMST used to be a charter school but too many students were arriving unprepared for the advanced coursework with the result that over 50% were dropping out. It gave up charter status in order to be able to impose the Algebra requirement.
De Bakey requires a ‘B’ average and ‘Meets Grade Level’ scores on reading and math standardized tests. For kids with low socio-economic status, a ‘B’ average and ‘Approaches Grade Level’ are sufficient. Algebra 1 is required before enrolling.
At City High/Middle, math and reading MAP scores at or above the 50th percentile are required.
Each International Academy has a consortium of participating school districts, each of which conducts its own lottery. At IA Macomb, applicants must pass math and essay placement tests. Places may be determined by both testing and lottery results. Applicants must have taken Algebra 1 or higher math class prior to attending. At International Academy, successful applicants must take and pass a Math placement test that covers material from Algebra 1.
SFUSD no longer teaches Algebra in middle school so no SFUSD student would be academically qualified to enter some of those lotteries.
High Expectations
All these schools set high standards for their students, often far in excess of those required for graduation by their state education departments.
At Merrol Hyde, students who begin in kindergarten learn both Spanish and French. High school students are required to take at least two AP classes (one of which may be a dual enrollment college course). Algebra II is offered as early as 9th grade. Students who fail one course for two successive marking periods may be required to return to their zoned school.
At School for Advanced Studies, all students take AP English Language and Composition in 11th grade and AP English Literature and Composition in 12th grade. Similarly, the only Math courses offered are Pre-Calculus Honors and AP Calculus AB but more advanced students can take Miami Dade College courses. All students are required to complete Summer assignments before their junior and senior years.
At Gwinnett School of Mathematics, Science, and Technology, students take Physics/Engineering and Honors Chemistry as freshmen. The standard Math Track has students doing AP Calculus in 11th grade but it can be done as early as 10th grade.
At Tesla STEM, grade 9 students take AP Computer Science Principles, Honors Physics, and Entrepreneurship among other classes. After that, students follow either an Engineering or Computer Science Pathway. In grades 11 and 12, students take STEM Lab Concentrations in Environmental Engineering and Sustainable Design, Forensics / Advanced Psychology, Biomedical Engineering, and Advanced Physics/Global Engineering.
At DeBakey HS for Health Professions, all students are required to participate in a health science course each year. Students must take at least one AP Science course and an AP Calculus course. To remain in the magnet program, students must maintain an average of 80 or higher in all Health Science classes and 75 or higher in all core classes.
At the four schools that offer the International Baccalaureate, everyone is expected to follow the IB Diploma Program in grades 11 and 12. The two International Academies have an extended school year (205 days, compared to SFUSD’s 180) and an extended school day. Three of the four offer the IB Middle Years Program in their earlier grades. The fourth IB school, Signature, requires 9th graders take AP US History. 10th graders take AP World History, AP English Language and Composition, and AP Seminar. By the end of 12th grade, all students have taken AP US Government and either AP Macroeconomics or AP Microeconomics. In Math, the entry-level course is Algebra I but more advanced students can begin with Geometry or Algebra 2 or Precalculus. AP Calculus BC is taken in 11th grade by those doing Higher Level IB Math.
At the six BASIS schools, the curriculum is particularly accelerated with kids taking “a full year of economics in grade 8”. Students “are prepared to take AP Exams as early as grade 8, are required to take AP courses beginning in grade 9, and will complete at least six AP courses prior to graduation.”
The two Haas Hall schools also offer an accelerated program wherein students “complete courses by academic ability not by grade level.” According to the school handbook “all scholars must take AP level courses and take the end of course examination.”
No SFUSD High School offers acceleration of any kind. SFUSD does not offer Algebra in middle school so students must double up on Math to get to AP Calculus even by 12th grade. Many students, even at Lowell, do not take any AP classes.
Attrition
Here is the enrollment pattern for the seven schools with at least some restrictions on who can enter the lottery. Lowell is included for comparison.
Notice that schools with stiffer entrance requirement tend to have lower rates of attrition because the admitted students are able to handle the school’s demands.
Recall that Merrol Hyde applicants must score above the 85th percentile on standardized tests and the two International Academies have Math tests. GSMST’s attrition rate is still high but, before they introduced the Algebra requirement, they had never graduated even 50% of their incoming students. At City High/Middle, the big drop off happens in 11th grade when students embark on the two year IB Diploma Program. It seems probable that kids who would find that too challenging are transferring back to their zoned schools.
Here’s the chart for schools with unrestricted lotteries. Tesla STEM is the only school not to lose at least 20% of its 9th graders. This is probably the place to point out that only 1.6% of its students are socioeconomically disadvantaged - a lower rate than you’ll find at any private school since private schools tend to give out financial aid. At D’Evelyn (5% socioeconomically disadvantaged) and Signature (16% socioeconomically disadvantaged), the dropoff seems to happen after 9th grade when students who realize the program is not for them transfer out. The BASIS schools seem to use 8th grade as the start of high school and it is noticeable that the attrition there is typically greatest after 8th grade.
Conclusion
The top-ranked high schools in the country either admit only high-achieving students or ensure that they end up with only high-achieving students by holding students to high achievement standards. The Board of Education should state which approach it believes appropriate or admit that it does not want a top-ranked high school in San Francisco.
Appendix
Why the TJ Alumni Report is Unreliable
Measuring segregation and inequality in housing and education has been a research topic for decades. Here’s a recent peer-reviewed paper that reviews the pros and cons of various methods for measuring segregation and inequality. In evaluating potential measures, the author points out that “Proportionate increases or decreases in the size of the population have no effect on inequality” (Table A1) and “multiplying the whole distribution by a constant should have no effect on inequality, because it has no effect on the relative difference between cases” (Table A2).
It doesn’t even mention chi-square (the measure used by the TJ Alumni), presumably because a chi-square is dependent on the size of the school. A school of 500 students that is 80% Asian and 20% Latino will have a lower chi-square than a school of 2000 students that is 66% Asian and 34% Latino. The 18 lottery schools are much smaller on average than the 32 selective schools (12 of the 18 have under 500 high schoolers) so it is impossible to say, based on the data the TJ Alumni published, whether the lottery schools are more or less representative.