Thanks for the very thorough analysis. Ethnic diversity is achieved at highly competitive UCs by making it much harder for students at schools with large numbers of high achieving students to get admitted to the school of their choice.
Could also be normalized to percent of Asians in each high school. Are SF public high schools 1/3 Asian? You will notice many high schools in California that have more NMSF than the entire city of SF (or LA proper too). You will notice that these HS have a preponderance of Asian surnames in their rolls of NMSF.
Two questions arise. First, the UC forces these Asians to compete within their own zip code (or HS), many are shut out, and must travel out of state and pay out of state tuition for college. I view this as affirmative action by proxy, and I hope to ask a Federal court if they agree. (Though when SFFA did this with Harvard, it took 7 years and $8 million). All the UC has done, is weaken a nation (or California's economy). Last time I checked, California's economy was grateful for Silicon Valley. We brain drain Asia into Silicon Valley, only to have the UC then take the resulting smart Asian kids and throw them out of California.
Secondly, if SFUSD has 30% Asian students, why do vanishingly few of them score high on PSAT (which then correlates to SAT, ACT, IQ, college admission, and college graduation rate). SF's Asian students come from similar nature and similar nurture to Asian students in say Silicon Valley. Similar genetic stock and similar culture at home. The only explanation left is abysmal educational quality in SFUSD. Including detracking and Jo Boaler math.
Wanted to suggest another data source relevant to your analysis. The PSAT is administered quite broadly to 10th graders nationwide. And it correlates strongly with SAT scores. (and these correlate with IQ).
I believe each HS principal is given a report of the NMSQT semifinalists in their state. Top 1% become National Merit Semifinalists. Each state has a different cutoff. They ask that the data not be interpreted in this way, but it tells you which high schools have top scoring students (if any).
People crowdsource these reports and compile them:
Could be normalized to HS class size. I wonder if it's enough data to "fit a normal curve" to each school. It may be possible to get a few years of such data, in reddit and/or via https://archive.org/web/
There is a recent trend in Bay Area private schools to eliminate AP classes. Perhaps replacing them with with in-house honors classes. Conversely, some public schools are de-tracking. PSAT and NMSF will still remain a common denominator for comparison. Though of course the UC doesn't accept SAT scores, since it would shine a light on their bias.
Take a look at https://web.archive.org/web/20230914045449if_/https://litter.catbox.moe/swho2z.pdf This is a list of the National Merit Semifinalists (NMSF) in California, the top 1% of PSAT scores. Take for example Palo Alto High School and Gunn High School (Stanley Zhong's high school). As you can see, each of these schools has more NMSF than the entire city of San Francisco (or Los Angeles proper for that matter). It seems to me that these are excellent students possessed of high IQs and high GPAs, hard-Working with high executive function. Mission High School in San Francisco has zero NMSF. As we can see from these charts, the UCs each admit the latter school's students at an above average rate, and the Palo Alto schools at a rate far below that, indeed below the statewide average. Consider how it's a zero-sum game and all the hard-working + high-IQ Asians that got shafted, man for man. Meanwhile the SF kids will need remedial reading when they get to UC. And many will flunk out.
My kid is a senior at Mission, and unless he's been lying to me for 4 years, Mission's policy is that only seniors can take AP courses. This explains why Mission students average so many fewer APs. And yes, it seems ridiculous.
Mission also has a LOT of support for college applications, including the essays. They are not only encouraging more students to apply, but they are scaffolding every step of the process. I didn't see that level of support at Balboa.
(And I can't speak to averages, but anecdotally, my kid has a 4.0, 2 AP classes, and zero desire to go to Berkeley so didn't apply. Your generalization may hold, but is it fair to assume that every academically accomplished student applying to UC *wants* to go to Berkeley?)
Better to attend a challenging supporting school over being the big fish in a tiny pod in the ling run. Excellent analysis. Would be really good to understand how these students are doing once they get to college and graduation rates. Pushing UC may not serve all students well. The need for Asian students to out perform and yet get limited opportunities is not democratic and does not serve society in the long run. Capacity should be increased at a minimum to allow capable students from Lowell into UC and they should not be penalized for going to Lowell instead of Mission.
Don't underestimate the power this much high profile press will have on this in the future. I wouldnt be surprised if we see a sudden 180 degree shift in Mission students acceptances just because this press has been noted by the admissions office.
Thanks for the very thorough analysis. Ethnic diversity is achieved at highly competitive UCs by making it much harder for students at schools with large numbers of high achieving students to get admitted to the school of their choice.
Could also be normalized to percent of Asians in each high school. Are SF public high schools 1/3 Asian? You will notice many high schools in California that have more NMSF than the entire city of SF (or LA proper too). You will notice that these HS have a preponderance of Asian surnames in their rolls of NMSF.
Two questions arise. First, the UC forces these Asians to compete within their own zip code (or HS), many are shut out, and must travel out of state and pay out of state tuition for college. I view this as affirmative action by proxy, and I hope to ask a Federal court if they agree. (Though when SFFA did this with Harvard, it took 7 years and $8 million). All the UC has done, is weaken a nation (or California's economy). Last time I checked, California's economy was grateful for Silicon Valley. We brain drain Asia into Silicon Valley, only to have the UC then take the resulting smart Asian kids and throw them out of California.
Secondly, if SFUSD has 30% Asian students, why do vanishingly few of them score high on PSAT (which then correlates to SAT, ACT, IQ, college admission, and college graduation rate). SF's Asian students come from similar nature and similar nurture to Asian students in say Silicon Valley. Similar genetic stock and similar culture at home. The only explanation left is abysmal educational quality in SFUSD. Including detracking and Jo Boaler math.
Wanted to suggest another data source relevant to your analysis. The PSAT is administered quite broadly to 10th graders nationwide. And it correlates strongly with SAT scores. (and these correlate with IQ).
I believe each HS principal is given a report of the NMSQT semifinalists in their state. Top 1% become National Merit Semifinalists. Each state has a different cutoff. They ask that the data not be interpreted in this way, but it tells you which high schools have top scoring students (if any).
People crowdsource these reports and compile them:
https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/comments/xe83xz/list_of_semifinalists_by_state/
https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/comments/16dumdx/nms_2024_complete_semifinalist_lists/
Could be normalized to HS class size. I wonder if it's enough data to "fit a normal curve" to each school. It may be possible to get a few years of such data, in reddit and/or via https://archive.org/web/
There is a recent trend in Bay Area private schools to eliminate AP classes. Perhaps replacing them with with in-house honors classes. Conversely, some public schools are de-tracking. PSAT and NMSF will still remain a common denominator for comparison. Though of course the UC doesn't accept SAT scores, since it would shine a light on their bias.
Take a look at https://web.archive.org/web/20230914045449if_/https://litter.catbox.moe/swho2z.pdf This is a list of the National Merit Semifinalists (NMSF) in California, the top 1% of PSAT scores. Take for example Palo Alto High School and Gunn High School (Stanley Zhong's high school). As you can see, each of these schools has more NMSF than the entire city of San Francisco (or Los Angeles proper for that matter). It seems to me that these are excellent students possessed of high IQs and high GPAs, hard-Working with high executive function. Mission High School in San Francisco has zero NMSF. As we can see from these charts, the UCs each admit the latter school's students at an above average rate, and the Palo Alto schools at a rate far below that, indeed below the statewide average. Consider how it's a zero-sum game and all the hard-working + high-IQ Asians that got shafted, man for man. Meanwhile the SF kids will need remedial reading when they get to UC. And many will flunk out.
My kid is a senior at Mission, and unless he's been lying to me for 4 years, Mission's policy is that only seniors can take AP courses. This explains why Mission students average so many fewer APs. And yes, it seems ridiculous.
Mission also has a LOT of support for college applications, including the essays. They are not only encouraging more students to apply, but they are scaffolding every step of the process. I didn't see that level of support at Balboa.
(And I can't speak to averages, but anecdotally, my kid has a 4.0, 2 AP classes, and zero desire to go to Berkeley so didn't apply. Your generalization may hold, but is it fair to assume that every academically accomplished student applying to UC *wants* to go to Berkeley?)
Better to attend a challenging supporting school over being the big fish in a tiny pod in the ling run. Excellent analysis. Would be really good to understand how these students are doing once they get to college and graduation rates. Pushing UC may not serve all students well. The need for Asian students to out perform and yet get limited opportunities is not democratic and does not serve society in the long run. Capacity should be increased at a minimum to allow capable students from Lowell into UC and they should not be penalized for going to Lowell instead of Mission.
Don't underestimate the power this much high profile press will have on this in the future. I wouldnt be surprised if we see a sudden 180 degree shift in Mission students acceptances just because this press has been noted by the admissions office.